Energy Scarcity and Urban Development Patterns

Abstract

This paper assesses the extent to which energy scarcity might alter the process of intrametropolitan decentralization. It finds many adjustment mechanisms are likely to be used in preference to changes in land use patterns. Even in the absence of such adjustments, typical city-suburban cost differentials caused by higher fuel prices are relatively small due to existing differences in work-trip characteristics, non-work automobile travel, and residential heating/cooling requirements. Considerable location shifts within both cities and suburbs might be produced, but apparently energy scarcity will have little effect on central cities as a whole.