White Flight and Central-City Loss: Application of an Analytic Migration Framework

Abstract

This paper utilizes an analytic migration framework to assess the aggregate impact of selected community-level factors on white population losses experienced in central cities of large metropolitan areas. The framework identifies analytically distinct components of local and long-distance migration streams which contribute directly to central-city population change. Each component can be specified as a function of community-level attributes which are relevant to the explanation of specific in- and out-movement streams. In this application, previously advanced racial and nonracial attributes of central cities and their surrounding suburbs are used to estimate framework components based on 1970 census data for white movement streams associated with the central cities of large SMSAs. These estimates are then used to ascertain the impact that the central-city racial composition exerts on net white out-migration from selected cities. The data demonstrate that the aggregate impact of racially linked ‘white flight’ has been minimal.