Robust Statistical Estimation for Capture-Recapture Using Administrative Data

Author:

Chipperfield James O.12ORCID,Chu Randall1,Zhang Li-Chun34ORCID,Baffour Bernard5

Affiliation:

1. Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, ACT, Australia

2. National Institute for Applied Statistics Research Australia, Wollongong, NSW, Australia

3. Statistisk sentralbyrå, Norway

4. University of Southampton, Southampton, UK

5. Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Abstract

The first key use of a nation’s Census is to count its resident population. A Census will have counting errors, often referred to as over-coverage and under-coverage. So it is common practice in many countries to conduct an independent count of its residents, a so-called coverage survey, and estimate or adjust for these counting errors within the capture-recapture framework. In recent times, many censuses and coverage surveys have faced challenges in counting the population efficiently and effectively due to rising costs, declining response rates, and respondent burden. This has led to a shift toward exploring the role that administrative registers could play in counting the population within the capture-recapture framework. Administrative registers are relatively inexpensive and can have high coverage of a nation’s population. This paper explores methods to overcome common problems with the use of administrative registers within this framework, including linking errors and scoping the register to only capture residents. These methods are empirically assessed in the context of the Australian population.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Reference37 articles.

1. Baffour B. 2009. “Estimation of Population Totals from Imperfect Census, Survey and Administrative Records.” PhD thesis, University of Southampton. Available at: https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/72367/ (accessed March 2024).

2. Baffour B., Brown J. J., Smith P. W. F. 2013. “An Investigation of Triple System Estimators in Censuses.” Statistical Journal of the IAOS 29 (1): 53–68. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3233/SJI-130760.

3. Latent Class Analysis for Estimating an Unknown Population Size – with Application to Censuses

4. Ballerini V. 2021. “The Fisher’s Noncentral Hypergeometric Distribution and Population Size Estimation Problems.” Available at: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.08346.pdf (accessed March 2024).

5. Contingency Table Interactions

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