The Effects of Redistricting on Voting Behavior in Incumbent U.S. House Elections, 1992—1994

Abstract

Although numerous studies have assessed the influence of the 1990s redistricting on U.S. House elections, without exception, these published studies rely on aggregate data (e.g., district-level data). Likewise, the author uses aggregate data, but he also departs from previous studies by using survey data to assess the influence of redistricting on vote choice in the 1992 and 1994 U.S. House elections. Unlike past studies, with the use of survey data, the author makes more definitive statements regarding the effects of redistricting on vote choice. The 1990s redistricting was an important factor contributing to the Republicans' House majority because voters drawn into districts with a different incumbent standing for reelection were much more likely to vote Republican.