Predicting Postsecondary Pathways: The Effect of Social Background and Academic Factors on Routes through School

Abstract

Access to institutions of higher education has increased in recent decades; however, increased access has not led to parallel increases in degree completion among all types of students. In this article, I examine the associations between individual-level factors and the particular paths through educational institutions that students follow as they navigate their educational careers. Research on educational pathways has typically examined individual educational “transitions” but failed to examine the full “trajectories” that students experience. Applying optimal matching sequence analysis techniques to the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002, I capture the long-term postsecondary educational experiences of respondents across 107 months in early adulthood. Examining how social background factors affect the extent and ordering of postsecondary experiences over this extended period of the life course contributes to our understanding of the ways these factors may influence whole educational careers and provides a holistic counterpart to the more traditional transitions-focused literature.