Investigating Crime Pattern Stability at Micro-Temporal Intervals: Implications for Crime Analysis and Hotspot Policing Strategies

Abstract

Studies of crime hotspot forecasts use various metrics to describe different characteristics of prediction patterns. However, few investigations consider how the stability of crime hotspot, estimated at relatively short temporal intervals, can impact hotspot policing efforts. In response, using address-level incident location data that were collected from six law enforcement agencies in the United States, the current study examines the daily stability of crime hotspots that were estimated over a 1-year period. Results suggest that micro-temporal stability patterns in crime hotspot forecasts are dependent on crime type, jurisdiction, and the interaction between these two factors. Implications for crime analysis and future research are discussed.