Global, Regional, and National Incidence Trend Analysis of Malignant Skin Melanoma Between 1990 and 2019, and Projections Until 2034

Abstract

Background The goal of this study was to evaluate the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease study. Methods The incidences’ relationships with the social-demographic index (SDI) and human developmental index (HDI) were investigated. To determine significant changes in incidence trends, the joinpoint regression model was used. To demonstrate trends in MSM mortality rates, an Age-Period-Cohort framework was conducted. For the projection of new cases and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of MSM incidence to 2034, the Nordpred method was used. Results In 2019, the ASR incidence per 100, 000 people for MSM was 3.6 (95% UI, 2.6–4.2). MSM prevalence increased in most countries between 1990 and 2019 (average annual percentage change >0). HDI and annual percentage change (APC) (ρ = .63, P < .001), as well as SDI and ASR, had a positive correlation. The total MSM mortality rate declined globally, with an APC of −.61%. Likewise, the mortality rate for the age group of people with ages <77.5 years declined. Predictive analysis demonstrated a declining trend in ASR incidence and a growing number of MSM. Conclusion There are significant differences in ASR incidence among regions and countries. Despite decreases in ASR incidence and fatality, MSM remains one of the leading sources of cancer mortality and morbidity globally. MSM necessitates more primary prevention measures and screening in high-risk areas.