An improved fractal prediction model for forecasting mine slope deformation using GM (1, 1)

Abstract

The forecasting slope deformation potential is required to evaluate slope safety during open-pit mining, allowing us to formulate and promote effective emergency strategies in advance to prevent slope failure disasters. Although fractal models have been used to predict slope deformation, such limitations as low prediction accuracy, poor stability and the requirement for large amounts of data must be overcome. This article proposes an improved fractal model to forecast mine slope deformation using the grey system theory. The GM (1, 1) model is used in the improved fractal model to optimize the fitting function of the fractal dimension because of its high computational efficiency and strong fitting ability. Data sequences spanning 13 days from 11 global positioning system monitoring stations in the Jinduicheng open-pit mine in Shaanxi Province, China, were applied to forecast the slope deformation. The results from both the traditional fractal model and the improved fractal model can accurately forecast the slope deformation value fairly close to the actual field monitoring value, but the latter can make a more accurate prediction than the former. There is a significant relationship between the prediction accuracy and the data sequence dispersion. Further analysis revealed that our improved fractal model is more capable of resisting the volatility existing in the data sequences than the traditional fractal model. These findings assist in understanding the applicability of prediction models and the deformation trends of open-pit mine slopes.