Uncertainty in the construction of global knowledge of tropical forests

Abstract

Knowledge of tropical forest change remains uncertain, affecting our ability to produce accurate estimates of globally aggregated parameters to support clear global statements about ‘the tropical forests’. This paper reviews current methods for constructing global knowledge of changes in tropical forest area, carbon density, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It finds a deficiency in formal institutions for global measurement and constructing global knowledge. In their absence, informal institutions have proliferated, increasing the spread of estimates. This is exacerbated by dependence on inaccurate official statistics, which has limited construction of knowledge about forest area change through modelling. Employing the new concept of the Knowledge Exchange Chain shows the interdependence of different disciplines in constructing composite information. Limitations linked to compartmentalization and scale are present, as predicted by the ‘post-normal hypothesis’. Disciplinary compartmentalization has impeded construction of information about forest carbon and biodiversity change. There is growth in interdisciplinary research into modelling forest change and estimating carbon emissions using remote sensing data, but not in studying biodiversity. Continuing uncertainty has implications for implementing the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) scheme. Uncertainty could be reduced by expanding formal scientific institutions, e.g. by establishing an operational scientific global forest monitoring system, and devising formal generic rules for constructing global environmental knowledge.