A composite indicator for short-term diffusion forecasts of renewable energy technologies – the case of Germany

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of energy policy and the regulatory environment on the deployment of technologies based on renewable energy sources in Germany and presents a model to forecast future renewable energy technology diffusion. Our concept is based on the development of a composite indicator for renewable energy diffusion with a focus on wind energy (onshore) and photovoltaic. The approach has three major components: in-depth, semi-structured interviews with renewable energy developers and energy sector stakeholders to identify the major drivers and barriers (determinants) for renewable energy diffusion in the case study country; an EU-wide, questionnaire-based survey to understand the relevance (weights) of the individual determinants; and an analysis of past renewable energy diffusion patterns resulting in the deduction of a model for short-term renewable energy technology diffusion forecasts. Results demonstrate the substantial impact of economic and non-economic framework conditions on the diffusion of photovoltaic and wind energy in Germany. Furthermore, the use of composite indicators for renewable energy technology diffusion analyses proves to be a promising approach.