Predicting arterio-venous fistula failure by urea–method derived access blood flow in chronic hemodialysis patients

Abstract

Background: Dialysis access is an essential part of hemodialysis. Determining the access blood flow (Qa) can help predict arterio-venous fistula thrombosis. Qa determination by the urea method, which was previously described in the past is simple and is available in most of the dialysis units but was not be able to predict arterio-venous fistula thrombosis. Aim: To compare the efficacy of Qa determination by the urea method and by ultrasound dilution methods in predicting arterio-venous fistula failure. Methods: Qa was measured by urea method and by ultrasound dilution simultaneously, every 3 months for a period of 1 year, in stable chronic hemodialysis patients with arterio-venous fistula. Arterio-venous fistula failure determined by clinical parameters and confirmed by Doppler ultrasound before sending the patient for interventional angioplasty. Results: This study enrolled a total of 16 patients, with 63% being male, 75% with lower-arm arterio-venous fistula and around 43% with previously done angioplasty. 59-Qa measurements were done, and 6 patients underwent angioplasty (one patient for severe upper limb edema, one for access thrombosis, and four for access dysfunction). Qa determination by the urea method had non-significantly lower Qa, (745 mL/min (interquartile range: 509–1143) and 779 mL/min (interquartile range: 530–1160), (p = 0.58)) and high correlation (r = 0.83, p < 0.001) to Qa by ultrasound dilution. The cut-off criteria with its sensitivity and specificity in predicting the access failure were 440 mL/min, 66.67%, and 96.15% for Qa determination by the urea and 400 mL/min, 66.67% and 90.38% for Qa by ultrasound dilution, respectively, with no difference in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Conclusion: Measurement of Qa determination by the urea method is well correlated with Qa by ultrasound dilution and can be used to predict vascular access failure.