Agroclimate and Crop Response to Climate Change in Alberta, Canada

Abstract

The impact of possible avenues of climatic change on agriculture was investigated for the province of Alberta on the Canadian prairies. Climate scenarios were based on output from the Canadian Climate Centre Global Circulation Model. In these scenarios, the semi-arid area increased only when temperature increases were not accompanied by an increase in precipitation. Seeding dates for spring wheat advanced by 10–28 days, while harvest dates advanced by 22–37 days. Growing degree days increased by 50% across the region. There was little impact on aridity, indicating the adaptiveness of agriculture through earlier seeding dates. Crop yields increased by 21 to 124%, in part because of the direct effect of high atmospheric CO2. Our results indicate a positive impact of climate change on crop yields and diversity in Alberta.