Applications of Systems Modelling in Peace Research

Abstract

Systems theory has contributed greatly to the development of peace and war-related studies. Originating approximately in the same period, each of these scientific movements has influenced the other to a degree that may seem astonishing to outsiders, and both have been divided by fierce methodological dispute. The parallel development has yielded several overlaps, among which an interesting coincidence can be observed. A number of the founders of General Systems Theory were also the forerunners of peace and conflict studies. On the basis of universal ethical motivations the first peace researchers attempted to create holistic methodologies and more detailed models enabling humanity to identify, and eventually to control, the processes leading to the outbreaks of war. Similar activities, albeit subdued by the political goals, were also carried out in government-sponsored strategic studies centres, where so-called systems analysis was elaborated. Numerous confusions have been made in the implementation of mathematicized systemic models into peace research. Attitudes have varied from naive fascination to absolute denial. In the first part of the present work an attempt to present a balanced opinion on systemic models m peace and conflict studies is worked out. Evaluation of the following concepts: game theory, computer simulation, field theory, entropy law, and catastrophe theory is carried out using the views of enthusiasts and critics. In the second part, the potential impact exerted upon peace research by complex systems studies are discussed. As the new models applicable in social systems investigations, the following proposals are evaluated: non-equilibrium thermodynamics, self-reference and autopoiesis, synergetics, and chaos theory.