The BJP’s Fragile Mandate: Modi and Vote Mobilizers in the 2014 General Elections

Abstract

It has become commonplace to attribute the BJP’s victory in the 2014 Indian general elections to Narendra Modi. In this article we unravel the Modi effect and argue that Modi’s success is tied to his ability to attract ‘vote mobilizers’—individuals who campaign for the party—to the BJP. In 2014, the BJP had more mobilizers than any other party. The BJP also had more vote mobilizers in 2014 than in 2004, while the Congress had fewer. However, these mobilizers, while capable of increasing both turnout and vote share for their chosen party, display little party loyalty or partisanship. Instead, they are drawn to a winning candidate or party. Since it is ‘winnability’ that motivates mobilizers, their support for a party is shallow and, potentially, fleeting. We conclude by claiming that the BJP’s victory is more fragile than many assume.