The "Coup Contagion" Hypothesis

Abstract

This paper attempts to examine the extent to which military coups in one country influence in some fashion the occurrence of coups in other countries. The examination is conducted primarily via the application of three stochastic models (the Poisson, the "contagious Poisson," and the Gaussian [Markovian]) to 1946-1970 data on successful and unsuccessful military coups, aggregated at the world and selected regional levels. Since the statistical evidence indicates that the occurrence of earlier coups does affect the subsequent probability of coups elsewhere, the paper concludes with a speculative interpretation of the "coup contagion" phenomenon which emphasizes the possibility of behavioral reinforcement processes operating within global and regional communication networks.