Endogenous and exogenous effects in self‐exciting process models of terrorist activity

Abstract

A model based on the cluster process representation of the self‐exciting process model is derived to allow for variation in the excitation effects for terrorist events in a self‐exciting or cluster process model. The model's derivation and implementation details are given and applied to data from the Global Terrorism Database (National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), 2015) from 2000 to 2013. Results regarding the practical interpretation and implications for a theoretical model paralleling existing criminological theory are discussed.