Why the NLD fails to consolidate democratic transition in Myanmar

Abstract

The general populace in Myanmar, as well as international observers, have expected that the National League for Democracy (NLD) would be able to consolidate democratic transition, since the latter obtained a certain degree of support from home and abroad. During the five years of the NLD administration, transition has nevertheless been in regression instead of progression. All rating agencies (Freedom House, Bertelsmann, VDem) consider that Myanmar is not yet a democracy. Freedom House's report indicates that Myanmar's status changed from ‘Partly Free’ to ‘Not Free’ in 2020. Much of the existing literature argues that this stems from the NLD having had to operate within structural constraints and agency curbs. Therefore, this article will examine why the NLD is unable to overcome these barriers, under which structural factors and what kind of agency. The article argues that, instead of structure-altering, the NLD has reinforced structural barriers without seeking any considerable leeway within the bounds of existing constraints. In the context of structure, this article will examine the transition process itself, as well as constitutional arrangements, the economic system, and the political culture. The agency context will include the behaviours of the chief executive, the Tatmadaw, and the general populace.