Inequitable access to ecosystem services and commercial products is a major risk under certain political regimes in Myanmar

Abstract

Abstract The impact of contrasting political regimes on people’s access to natural resources, which is vital for ecosystem service provision, remains largely understudied. While the promotion of equitable natural resources governance was regarded as key for lasting peacebuilding in Myanmar, the country is again facing a major crisis since the 1 February 2021 military coup. With this study we look beyond the current political crisis to investigate three long-term governance regimes (scenarios) and their expected impacts on ecosystem services for local communities: a unitary state with business-driven objectives, a military regime, and a federal democracy with strong community control over resources. We combined an online expert survey for qualitative storylines and subsequent modelling of commercial products, biodiversity, and cultural identity. Our findings show that while the area under agricultural plantations and thus the supply of commercial products is expected to increase under all scenarios, local communities would have limited access and thus few actual benefits under a military regime. A reduction in forest area, as expected under a unitary state and military regime, would entail high biodiversity losses. Biodiversity would in turn remain stable under a decentralized governance system where rural communities support more diverse agricultural and forest landscapes. For cultural identity, we found little change under the scenarios. A federal democracy scenario, which is most likely in the next decade according to experts, could mean a co-creation of landscapes with preferable outcomes for both nature and people compared to previous business-driven and current power-driven political structures.