Murder on Maneuver: Exploring Green-on-Blue Attacks in Afghanistan

Abstract

Green-on-blue attacks have a devastating psychological, tactical, and operational effect on military operations in Afghanistan. In spite of this, no empirical research has offered a data-driven examination of these attacks, leaving a gap that this article aims to address. By analyzing a large (yet inevitability incomplete) open-source database developed on these attacks, we present data on the perpetrators and victims of these attacks. We also investigate whether green-on-blue attacks are related to the number of civilian casualties in that area; finding that (unlike wider insurgent violence) they are not. Instead, we find that it is the number of troops present within a Regional Command that is positively correlated with the likelihood that a green-on-blue attack will occur. We discuss the implications of these findings with reference to future issues of force protection.