First Steps Toward Modeling ADHD Under a Dual-Task Paradigm Using a Markovian Framework for Diagnosis

Abstract

Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is a common cognitive disorder afflicting many children and adults. Since most ADHD diagnostic procedures are based on subjective assessments, the goal of this study was to develop an objective assessment that takes into account performance differences between ADHD and non-ADHD individuals under a dual-task paradigm. Specifically, a model using a Markovian framework was used to determine the probability people with and without ADHD would switch between two tasks. Two studies were used, one to develop the model and one to validate the model. The values from the Ewen et al. (2012) study were used to determine the values of interest: the percentage of time spent on the each task, the probabilities remaining on each task, and the probabilities of switching between tasks. The developed multiplier value equations, which established the predicted values, were validated using the values from the Cepeda et al. (2000) study. The differences between the predicted values were all within 15% of the actual values. Overall, the study provides the initial stepping stone toward developing an objective ADHD diagnostic tool based on dual-task performance.