Development and Validation of Binary Classifiers to Predict Nocturnal Hypoglycemia in Adults With Type 1 Diabetes

Abstract

Background: One of the biggest challenges for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) using multiple daily injections (MDIs) is nocturnal hypoglycemia (NH). Recurrent NH can lead to serious complications; hence, prevention is of high importance. In this work, we develop and externally validate, device-agnostic Machine Learning (ML) models to provide bedtime decision support to people with T1D and minimize the risk of NH. Methods: We present the design and development of binary classifiers to predict NH (blood glucose levels occurring below 70 mg/dL). Using data collected from a 6-month study of 37 adult participants with T1D under free-living conditions, we extract daytime features from continuous glucose monitor (CGM) sensors, administered insulin, meal, and physical activity information. We use these features to train and test the performance of two ML algorithms: Random Forests (RF) and Support Vector Machines (SVMs). We further evaluate our model in an external population of 20 adults with T1D using MDI insulin therapy and wearing CGM and flash glucose monitoring sensors for two periods of eight weeks each. Results: At population-level, SVM outperforms RF algorithm with a receiver operating characteristic–area under curve (ROC-AUC) of 79.36% (95% CI: 76.86%, 81.86%). The proposed SVM model generalizes well in an unseen population (ROC-AUC = 77.06%), as well as between the two different glucose sensors (ROC-AUC = 77.74%). Conclusions: Our model shows state-of-the-art performance, generalizability, and robustness in sensor devices from different manufacturers. We believe it is a potential viable approach to inform people with T1D about their risk of NH before it occurs.