Risk assessment method of coal and gas outburst based on improved comprehensive weighting and cloud theory

Abstract

Risk assessment is an effective method of accident prevention and is vital to actual production. To reduce the risk of mining accidents and realize green and sustainable coal mining, a coal and gas outburst risk assessment method based on the improved comprehensive weight and cloud theory is proposed. The proposed method can effectively solve problems of fuzziness and randomness, index weight deviation, and correlation between indexes in risk assessment, as well as improve the accuracy and rationality of assessment. Nine influencing factors that correspond to coal seam occurrence and geological characteristics, coal seam physical characteristics, and gas occurrence characteristics are selected to establish the risk assessment index system of coal and gas outburst. Using the improved group G1 method and improved CRITIC method to obtain the subjective and objective weights, the ideal point method is used to obtain the comprehensive weight. Using the normal cloud model of cloud theory and the comprehensive weight to assess engineering examples 1–2, the No. 3 coal seam of a mine in Shanxi, and the 21 coal seam of a mine in Henan, the risk grade of coal and gas outburst is determined and then compared with the assessment results obtained from the engineering examples and the actual situations of the above mentioned coal seams. The results show that the coal and gas outburst risks of engineering examples 1–2, No. 3 coal seam, and 21 coal seam are of grades IV, IV, II, and IV, respectively. The No. 3 coal seam and 21 coal seam belong to lower and higher risk categories, respectively. The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation of the coal seams, thereby confirming the rationality and accuracy of the proposed method. This study expands the methods of coal and gas outburst risk assessment and facilitates the formulation of effective preventive measures.