The distributional consequences of future flood risk management in England and Wales

Author:

Penning-Rowsell Edmund1,Pardoe Joanna2

Affiliation:

1. Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University, The Burroughs, London NW4 4BT, England

2. WASCAL Project, United Nations Institute for Envirionment and Human Security, UN Campus, Platz der Vereinten Nationen 1, D-53113 Bonn, Germany

Abstract

Much flood risk management (FRM) research has examined the predicted increased burden of risk from future climate change. In contrast, this paper examines the changing funding regime for FRM and arrangements for flood insurance in the UK today. These changes, after the 1998–2013 period of severe and repeated flooding, may considerably increase the burden for at-risk households, but affect different groups differently, raising the question as to how to manage the risk and who should pay for this risk management. We explore this through scenarios incorporating modelled changes both to government investment to reduce risk and to flood insurance. The key findings are that moving towards a more risk-based approach could move the burden hugely, particularly onto financially deprived at-risk households, such that both investment and insurance could be unaffordable or unavailable. As insurance becomes more risk based, deprived households are less likely to purchase cover, but higher costs might incentivise those at risk to adapt to the risk they face. In the end, society has to decide whether to promote more substantial incentives discouraging occupation of the floodplain, with the likely adverse consequences for those there who are financially deprived, or retain the current discouragement of self-help.

Publisher

SAGE Publications

Subject

Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Public Administration,Environmental Science (miscellaneous),Geography, Planning and Development

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