Predicting Air-Transport Demand

Abstract

In this paper, the efficiency of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and regression models in simulating air-transport passengers by route are compared and constrasted. It is concluded that ARIMA models are far superior not only in their simulation capabilities but also in their applicability to such data. In the context of the UK Civil Aviation Authority's approach to forecasting, it is suggested that ARIMA models, including those with intervention terms, bear closer examination.