A Single-Region Carrier Model for the Simulation of Hodgkin's Disease Applied to its Incidence in Greater Manchester, 1962–1976

Abstract

Epidemiologists have found a good deal of anecdotal and statistical evidence to suggest that Hodgkin's disease may be an infectious entity. In this paper a deterministic carrier model is developed in the light of these findings and, in particular, the equilibrium behaviour of the model is explored under various assumptions about the incidence of the disease in Greater Manchester, 1962 – 1976. The object of this analysis is to identify those equilibrium populations which seem most capable of supporting the monthly incidence of Hodgkin's disease in the region.