Stochastic Carrier Models for the Simulation of Hodgkin's Disease in a System of Regions

Abstract

In this paper I build on earlier work, which entailed the construction of a deterministic carrier model to simulate the incidence of Hodgkin's disease. This model is developed into an operational stochastic form, which is tested on the monthly incidence of Hodgkin's disease in Greater Manchester, 1962 to 1976. A further refinement is the transformation of this model into a multiregion model, which makes use of gravity interactions in order to simulate cross-boundary interactions. The results of an experiment, designed to show the impact of the friction-of-distance parameter and of the number of regions on the performance of the model, are reported.