A simple model to estimate the transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

A simple model to estimate the transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa

Published:2022 Issue:10 Volume:19 Page:10361-10373
ISSN:1551-0018
Container-title:Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering
language:
Short-container-title:MBE

Author:

Yu Yangyang¹²,Liu Yuan¹,Zhao Shi³⁴,He Daihai¹

Affiliation:

1. Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China

2. State Key Laboratory for Strength and Vibration of Mechanical Structures, School of Aerospace Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China

3. JC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

4. CUHK Shenzhen Research Institute, Shenzhen, China

Abstract

<abstract> <p>The COVID-19 pandemic caused multiple waves of mortality in South Africa, where three genetic variants of SARS-COV-2 and their ancestral strain dominated consecutively. State-of-the-art mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the time-varying transmissibility of SARS-COV-2 and the relative transmissibility of Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants. The transmissibility of the three variants were about 73%, 87%, and 276% higher than their preceding variants. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first simple model that can simulate multiple mortality waves and three variants' replacements in South Africa. The transmissibility of the Omicron variant is substantially higher than that of previous variants.</p> </abstract>

Publisher

American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Computational Mathematics,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,Modeling and Simulation,General Medicine

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