Modeling the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant dynamics in the United States with booster dose vaccination and waning immunity

Author:

de León Ugo Avila-Ponce1,Pérez Angel G. C.2,Avila-Vales Eric2

Affiliation:

1. Programa de Doctorado en Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico

2. Facultad de Matemáticas, Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán, Anillo Periférico Norte, Tablaje Catastral 13615, C.P. 97119, Mérida, Yucatán, Mexico

Abstract

<abstract><p>We carried out a theoretical and numerical analysis for an epidemic model to analyze the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and the impact of vaccination campaigns in the United States. The model proposed here includes asymptomatic and hospitalized compartments, vaccination with booster doses, and the waning of natural and vaccine-acquired immunity. We also consider the influence of face mask usage and efficiency. We found that enhancing booster doses and using N95 face masks are associated with a reduction in the number of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths. We highly recommend the use of surgical face masks as well, if usage of N95 is not a possibility due to the price range. Our simulations show that there might be two upcoming Omicron waves (in mid-2022 and late 2022), caused by natural and acquired immunity waning with respect to time. The magnitude of these waves will be 53% and 25% lower than the peak in January 2022, respectively. Hence, we recommend continuing to use face masks to decrease the peak of the upcoming COVID-19 waves.</p></abstract>

Publisher

American Institute of Mathematical Sciences (AIMS)

Subject

Applied Mathematics,Computational Mathematics,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences,Modeling and Simulation,General Medicine

Reference72 articles.

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2. Department of Health and Social Care, First UK cases of Omicron variant identified. Available from: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-uk-cases-of-omicron-variant-identified.

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4. S. Cele, L. Jackson, D. S. Khoury, K. Khan, T. Moyo-Gwete, H. Thandeka, et al., Omicron extensively but incompletely escapes Pfizer BNT162b2 neutralization, Nature, 602 (2021), 654–656. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04387-1

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