Integrated and sustainable watershed management model of Göksu River Basin (Sakarya River Basin) with spatial autocorrelation and cluster analysis approach

Abstract

In the basins where natural and human environmental conditions are in intense interaction, management studies are carried out with various models in many contexts. In this study, it is aimed to create a watershed management model based on spatial auto correlation and clustering analysis over different variables of the Göksu River Basin, which has geographical diversity, interactions and potential risks. In the study, in which Geographical Information Systems (GIS) was used effectively, a multi-step system was created with deterministic, quantitative, correlation and distribution analysis methods. Four main variables (sub-models) were produced by analyzing many parameters in order to reveal all the geographical elements, interactions, natural dynamic functioning of the basin and to establish the cluster distribution as relation. The main variables consist of the geomorphological suitability-availability model, the precipitation runoff model, the multi-risk model, and the land use model. Each model was subjected to spatial correlation and cluster analysis distribution data of the basin were produced. The data, in which 5 different clusters were identified, were also analyzed in terms of problem-risk potential and sustainable-appropriate use potential. Then, the distribution data was tested for significance and clustering with the Local Moran's I-Anselin test and the Getis-Ord GI statistic. From the analyzes, it has been determined that the areas forming the high frame of the basin show a cluster with sustainable-appropriate use potential, and there is a cluster with high problem-risk potential in İnegöl Plain, north of Yenişehir and Göksu Valley. In order to ensure sustainability in the basin, it is necessary to protect ecological areas, increase flood, overflow, erosion, landslide measures, control water quality in streams and direct anthropogenic pressure concentration to more suitable areas.