MULTIFRACTAL APPROACH TO THE ANALYSIS OF CRIME DYNAMICS: RESULTS FOR BURGLARY IN SAN FRANCISCO

Abstract

This paper provides evidence of fractal, multifractal and chaotic behaviors in urban crime by computing key statistical attributes over a long data register of criminal activity. Fractal and multifractal analyses based on power spectrum, Hurst exponent computation, hierarchical power law detection and multifractal spectrum are considered ways to characterize and quantify the footprint of complexity of criminal activity. Moreover, observed chaos analysis is considered a second step to pinpoint the nature of the underlying crime dynamics. This approach is carried out on a long database of burglary activity reported by 10 police districts of San Francisco city. In general, interarrival time processes of criminal activity in San Francisco exhibit fractal and multifractal patterns. The behavior of some of these processes is close to [Formula: see text] noise. Therefore, a characterization as deterministic, high-dimensional, chaotic phenomena is viable. Thus, the nature of crime dynamics can be studied from geometric and chaotic perspectives. Our findings support that crime dynamics may be understood from complex systems theories like self-organized criticality or highly optimized tolerance.