Prediction of Television Audience Rating Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps with Forward Stepwise Regression

Abstract

The television audience rating is an important indicator of the quality of television programs and important reference for decision-television operator. As many factors that affect the ratings and the trends are complex, the article proposes a television rating mining predictive model based on fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) with forward stepwise regression. The FCMs use the causal relationship among various concept nodes to simulate the fuzzy reasoning, and enhance the dynamic behavior of the simulation system with its feedback mechanism, which is suitable for system to predict the trend of television audience rating. A FCM-based model for predicting television audience rating is proposed in this paper. The forward stepwise regression algorithm is used to obtain concept nodes of coarse weight matrix for FCMs, and then a training weight algorithm is used to refine the coarse weight matrix model. The FCM model is applied to mine the television audience rating, realizing to predict the television playback volume. The experimental result shows that the modeling method is effective.