Study on symptomatic and asymptomatic transmissions of COVID-19 including flip bifurcation

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze and investigate the COVID-19 transmission with effect of symptomatic and asymptomatic in the community. Mathematical model is converted into fractional order with the help of fractal fractional definition. The proposed fractional order system is investigated qualitatively as well as quantitatively to identify its stable position. Local stability of the COVID-19 system is verified and test the system is tested with flip bifurcation. Also the system is investigated for global stability using Lyapunov first and second derivative functions to see its rate of spread after recovery. The existence, boundedness and positivity of the COVID-19 are checked which are the key properties for such of type of epidemic problem to identify reliable findings. Effect of global derivative is demonstrated to verify its rate of effects according to their sub compartments to identify in which rate the symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission occurs. Solutions for fractional order system are derived with the help of advanced tool fractal fractional operator with generalized mittag-leffler kernel for different fractional values. Simulations are carried out to see symptomatic as well as asymptomatic effects of COVID-19 in the worldwide using MATLAB Coding. They show the actual behavior of COVID-19 especially for asymptomatic measures which will be helpful in early detection, also which will be helpful to understand the outbreak of COVID-19 as well as for future prediction and better control strategies.