Prediction of Business Failure with Fuzzy Models

Abstract

This paper extends the theory of fuzzy diseases predictions in order to detect the causes of business failure. This extension is justified through the advantages of the reference model and its originality. Moreover, the fuzzy model is completed by this proposal and some parts of it have been published in isolated articles. For this purpose, the fuzzy theory is combined with the OWA operators to identify the factors that generate problems in firms. Also, a goodness index to validate its functionality and prediction capacity is introduced. The model estimates a matrix of economic- financial knowledge based on matrices of causes and symptoms. Knowing the symptoms makes it possible to estimate the causes, and managing them properly, allows monitoring and improving the company’s financial situation and forecasting its future. Also with this extension, the model can be useful to develop suitable computer systems for monitoring companies’ problems, warning of failures and facilitating decision-making.