THE IMPACT OF TRADE CONFLICT ON MONETARY POLICY IN TARGET ECONOMIES

Abstract

The nexus between trade conflict and monetary policy is of great importance in international political and economic analysis. By employing data from a panel of global countries covering the period 2000–2015, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of trade conflict on monetary policy and how it works. We document the evidence that trade conflict has caused targeted countries to implement loose monetary policy. We also find that the impact of trade conflict is not only effective in the current year, but also continues in the next five years. In addition, we show that the significant impact on monetary policy is manifested in non-OECD countries and transition countries but not in OECD countries and non-transition countries. Consequently, we believe our findings should shed light on those policy makers in target countries, who can hopefully prepare for potential trade conflict and avoid similar disputes from interfering with the effectiveness of monetary policies in the domestic economy by providing practical currency and valuation strategies.