1. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 33 Liberty Street, New York, NY 10045 (e-mail: )
2. Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 (e-mail: )
3. Department of Economics, University of Leuven, Naamsestraat 69, 3000 Leuven, Belgium, National Bank of Belgium, and Department of Economics, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia (e-mail: )