CHAOTIC BEHAVIOR IN AN ADVERTISING DIFFUSION MODEL

Abstract

The paper is concerned with an advertising diffusion model where a firm devotes a fixed proportion of sales to advertising, while customers go through a two-stage adoption process. The model takes the form of a second-order, time-invariant, nonlinear dynamic system, in which a homoclinic bifurcation to infinity is shown to exist. Allowance is subsequently made for a seasonal fluctuation in the firm’s advertising rate. A bifurcation study of the periodic solutions is then accomplished by means of a continuation procedure. Emphasis is placed on the emergence of chaos. Only the chaotic solutions stemming from a cascade of period doublings appear to be economically meaningful.