STOCHASTIC ANALYSIS OF A DETERMINISTIC AND SEASONALLY-FORCED SEI MODEL FOR IMPROVED DISEASE SPREAD SIMULATION

Abstract

The geographic distribution of different viruses has developed widely, giving rise to an escalating number of cases during the past two decades. The deterministic Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious (SEI) models can demonstrate the spatio-temporal dynamics of the diseases and have been used extensively in modern mathematical and mechano-biological simulations. This article presents a functional technique to model the stochastic effects and seasonal forcing in a reliable manner by satisfying the Lipschitz criteria. We have emphasized that the graphical portrayal can prove to be a powerful tool to demonstrate the stability analysis of the deterministic as well as the stochastic modeling. Emphasis is made on the dynamical effects of the force of infection. Such analysis based on the parametric sweep can prove to be helpful in predicting the disease spread in urban as well as rural areas and should be of interest to mathematical biosciences researchers.