Best Option of Investment in Renewable Energy: A Multicriteria Decision-Making Analysis for Iranian Energy Industry

Abstract

Electricity production and consumption can be considered as one of the most important factors and necessities in the growth and development of any country. To generate electricity, it is necessary to build power plants. Due to the high exchange rate and the high cost of construction and operation of any new power plant in the electricity industry, it is necessary to select these power plants based on a wide range of criteria. In this research, using economic, environmental, technical, and social criteria, different power plants in Iran are prioritised using Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) fuzzy hierarchical analysis methods for the 2018–2040 period. Indicators of environmental pollution, initial investment per unit of electricity generated, maintenance costs, accessibility, public acceptability, and the possibility of developing and increasing capacity were the main indicators affecting the prioritisation of power plants in Iran. In general, according to all the indicators studied in this study, the level of environmental pollution has the greatest impact on the prioritisation of power plants. Also, the indicators related to the amount of initial investment per kilowatt-hour of electricity generated, maintenance costs, the possibility of expanding and increasing the capacity, and the possibility of easy access to spare parts were the most important factors. The results of multicriteria decision prioritisation show that solar power plants are the first option for the strategic choice of power plants, and wind farms and small-scale biomass are in the next priorities. Therefore, it is suggested that the government and policy institutions, according to the prioritisation of power plants, create the necessary infrastructure to exploit these energies.