MICROSCOPIC MODELING THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES

Abstract

We have adapted the Penna ageing model to simulate the profound changes in the age structures of populations caused by the better life style, medical care and decrease in birth rate. In Poland, after the political transformations in the last decade of the twentieth century, the increase in the expected lifespan has been accompanied by very deep decrease in birthrate, much below the minimum necessary for keeping the constant size of the population. Our microscopic model describes the changes in the age structure which have already happened and predicts the future, assuming that our attitudes in respect to life style and social relations will not change.