SIMULATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES

Abstract

Mortality, birth rates and retirement play a major role in demographic changes. In most cases, mortality rates decreased in the past century without noticeable decrease in fertility rates, leading to a significant increase in population growth. In many poor countries like Palestinian Territories the number of births has fallen and the life expectancy increased. In this paper we concentrate on measuring, analyzing and extrapolating the age structure in Palestine a few decades ago into the future. A Fortran program has been designed and used for the simulation and analysis of our statistical data. This study of demographic change in Palestine has shown that Palestinians will have in future problems as the strongest age cohorts are the above-60-year olds. We therefore recommend the increase of both the retirement age and female employment.