Objective Evaluation of the Source Models for Seismic Hazard Investigations Using the Logic Tree Approach: Case Study Semnan, Iran

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has become a fundamental tool in assessing seismic hazards and for estimating seismic design and seismic safety evaluation of ground motions. This report describes a study to test and verify the numerical approaches and software used in PSHA on Semnan, one of the important cities of Iran country. The geological and seismological data are integrated into a probabilistic seismic hazard model for the region. Historical and instrumental earthquake data, geology, tectonics, fault activity, and seismic source models associated with seismic events are taken into account. A probabilistic approach within a logic-tree framework is used to calculate seismic hazard for Semnan. The results were also displayed in terms of uniform hazard spectra for rock sites for return periods of 100, 475 and 2475 years, which is deemed appropriate for structural design standards in the Iran building code. As the results of this study have been displayed on the map for different return periods and different natural periods, it can provide the basis for the preparation of new seismic risk maps.