Regional and Site-Specific Ground Motion Model for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis in Taiwan: A Case Study of I-Lan

Abstract

In this study, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using a traditional approach with a simple logic tree that handles a single-site sigma is developed to present a site-specific ground motion hazard. The analysis relies on the accelerometer data collected from the I-Lan Plain, a deep sedimentary basin in Northeastern Taiwan where hundreds of earthquake sequences (with [Formula: see text] = 4.0–7.6) were recorded by the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrument Program (TSMIP) network between 1992 and 2016. The performance of PSHA on soil and hard sites is evaluated from two representative instrumented sites (ILA048 and ILA025), using residual measures available from a ground motion model (GMM) developed by Phung et al. [ 2023 ] (referred to as Ph23), from which the uncertainties in site terms ([Formula: see text] and single-site sigma ([Formula: see text] are estimated. We address key conceptual issues in the current PSHA approach and introduce a new region- and site-specific PSHA approach in which (1) site-to-site variability ([Formula: see text] is estimated as a random variance in a mixed effects GMM regression and (2) the GMM site-specific single-site sigma ([Formula: see text] is replaced with a generic site-corrected aleatory variability ([Formula: see text]). Comparison of the region- and site-specific hazard curves from our method against the traditional method estimates at two well-recorded sites in the I-Lan region shows an approximate 50% difference in prediction ground motion values considering for 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.