Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

登录注册会员服务联系我们

Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition

Published:2017-11 Issue:11 Volume:63 Page:3552-3565
ISSN:0025-1909
Container-title:Management Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Management Science

Author:

Moore Don A.¹,Swift Samuel A.²,Minster Angela³,Mellers Barbara³,Ungar Lyle³,Tetlock Philip³,Yang Heather H. J.⁴,Tenney Elizabeth R.⁵

Affiliation:

1. University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720

2. Betterment, LLC, New York, New York 10010

3. University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104

4. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

5. University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Subject

Management Science and Operations Research,Strategy and Management

Link

https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2525

Reference90 articles.

1. A status-enhancement account of overconfidence.

2. Accuracy, error, and bias in predictions for real versus hypothetical events.

3. Principles of Forecasting

4. Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls

5. Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme

Cited by 54 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献订阅此论文施引文献，注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献，订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Does expertise protect against overclaiming false knowledge?;Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes;2024-09

2. The effect of calibration training on the calibration of intelligence analysts' judgments;Applied Cognitive Psychology;2024-09

3. A Case Study of an Ignored Facet: Metacognitive Experiences;e-Kafkas Eğitim Araştırmaları Dergisi;2024-08-31

4. Metacognition during fake news detection induces an ineffective demand for disambiguating information;2024-06-06

5. “Are You Really Sure?” Understanding the Effects of Human Self-Confidence Calibration in AI-Assisted Decision Making;Proceedings of the CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems;2024-05-11

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线，采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统，可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容，当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种，收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇，并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询！咨询电话：010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号京ICP备18003416号-3