Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

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Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls

Published:2017-03 Issue:3 Volume:63 Page:691-706
ISSN:0025-1909
Container-title:Management Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Management Science

Author:

Atanasov Pavel¹,Rescober Phillip²,Stone Eric³,Swift Samuel A.⁴,Servan-Schreiber Emile⁵,Tetlock Philip⁶,Ungar Lyle⁷,Mellers Barbara⁶

Affiliation:

1. University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104; and Polly Portfolio, Inc., New York, New York 10007

2. Good Judgment, Inc., Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103

3. Pluralsight, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts 02118

4. Betterment, Inc., New York, New York 10010

5. Lumenogic, Inc., 75013 Paris, France

6. Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104

7. Department of Computer and Information Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104

Publisher

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)

Subject

Management Science and Operations Research,Strategy and Management

Link

https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374

Reference50 articles.

1. Combining Forecasts

2. The Marketcast Method for Aggregating Prediction Market Forecasts

3. Two Reasons to Make Aggregated Probability Forecasts More Extreme

4. Chapter 80 Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research

5. VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY

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