Abstract
SummaryDespite the advent of safe and highly effective COVID-19 vaccines1–4, pervasive inequities in global distribution persist5. In response, multinational partners have proposed programs to allocate vaccines to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)6. Yet, there remains a substantial funding gap for such programs7. Further, the optimal vaccine supply is unknown and the cost-effectiveness of investments into global vaccination programs has not been described. We used a validated COVID-19 simulation model8 to project the health benefits and costs of reaching 20%-70% vaccine coverage in 91 LMICs. We show that funding 20% vaccine coverage over one year among 91 LMICs would prevent 294 million infections and 2 million deaths, with 26 million years of life saved at a cost of US$6.4 billion, for an incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$250/year of life saved (YLS). Increasing vaccine coverage up to 50% would prevent millions more infections and save hundreds of thousands of additional lives, with ICERs below US$8,000/YLS. Results were robust to variations in vaccine efficacy and hesitancy, but were more sensitive to assumptions about epidemic pace and vaccination costs. These results support efforts to fund vaccination programs in LMICs and complement arguments about health equity9, economic benefits10, and pandemic control11.
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Cited by
10 articles.
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1. Safety of Janssen Ad26.COV.S and Astra Zeneca AZD1222 COVID-19 Vaccines among Mobile Phone Users in Malawi: Findings from a National Mobile-Based Syndromic Surveillance Survey, July 2021 to December 2021;International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health;2023-11-30
2. Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru;Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation;2023-04-01
3. Immunization Practice in Low- and Middle-Income Countries;Encyclopedia of Evidence in Pharmaceutical Public Health and Health Services Research in Pharmacy;2023
4. Cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru.;2022-10-18
5. Knowing Well, Being Well: well-being born of understanding: The Urgent Need for Coordinated and Comprehensive Efforts to Combat Misinformation;American Journal of Health Promotion;2022-02-14