Reservoir host immunology and life history shape virulence evolution in zoonotic viruses

Abstract

AbstractFuture pandemic risk management requires better understanding of the mechanisms that determine the virulence of emerging zoonotic viruses. Bats host viruses that cause higher case fatality rates upon spillover to humans than those derived from any other mammal, suggesting that reservoir host immunological and life history traits may be important drivers of cross-species virulence. Using a nested population-level and within-host modelling approach, we generate virulence predictions for viral zoonoses derived from diverse mammalian reservoirs, successfully recapturing corresponding virus-induced human mortality rates from the literature. Our work offers a mechanistic explanation for the virulence of bat-borne zoonoses and, more generally, demonstrates how key differences in reservoir host longevity, tolerance, and population density impact the evolution of viral traits that generate severe disease following spillover to humans. We provide a theoretical framework that offers a series of testable questions and hypotheses designed to stimulate future work comparing cross-species virulence evolution in zoonotic viruses derived from diverse mammalian hosts.