Summer COVID-19 third wave: faster high altitude spread suggests high UV adaptation

Abstract

AbstractWe present spread parameters for first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemy for USA states, and third wave for 32 regions (19 countries and 13 states of the USA) detected beginning of August 2020. USA first/second wave spreads increase/decrease with population density, are uncorrelated with temperature and median population age. Pooling all 32 regions, third wave spread is slower than for first wave, similar to second wave, and increases with mean altitude (second wave slopes decrease above 900m). Apparently, viruses adapted in spring (second wave) to high temperatures and infecting the young, and in summer (third) waves for spread at altitudes above 1000m. Third wave slopes are not correlated to temperature, so patterns with elevation presumably indicate resistance to relatively high UV regimes. Environmental trends of the COVID-19 pandemy change at incredible rates, making predictions based on classical epidemiological knowledge particularly uncertain.