Estimation of Daily Reproduction rates in COVID-19 Outbreak

Abstract

Abstract(1) BackgroundThe estimation of daily reproduction rates throughout the infectivity period is rarely considered and only their sum Ro is calculated to quantify the level of virulence of an infectious agent;(2) MethodsWe give the equation of the discrete dynamics of epidemic growth and we obtain an estimation of the daily reproduction rates, by using a technique of deconvolution of the series of observed new cases of Covid-19;(3) ResultsWe give both simulation results as well as estimations for several countries for the Covid-19 outbreak;(4) ConclusionsWe discuss the role of the noise on the precision of the estimation and we open on perspectives of forecasting methods to predict the distribution of daily reproduction rates along the infectivity period.