Do Lockdowns Bring about Additional Mortality Benefits or Costs? Evidence based on Death Records from 300 Million Chinese People

Abstract

AbstractAfter the COVID-19 outbreak, China immediately adopted stringent lockdown policies to contain the virus. Using comprehensive death records covering around 300 million Chinese people, we estimate the impacts of city and community lockdowns on non-COVID-19 mortality outside of Wuhan. Employing a difference-in-differences method, we find that lockdowns reduced the number of non-COVID-19 deaths by 4.9% (cardiovascular deaths by 6.2%, injuries by 9.2%, and non-COVID-19 pneumonia deaths by 14.3%). The health benefits are likely driven by significant reductions in air pollution, traffic, and human interactions. A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that more than 32,000 lives could have been saved from non-COVID-19 diseases/causes during the 40 days of the lockdown on which we focus. The results suggest that the rapid and strict virus countermeasures not only effectively controlled the spread of COVID-19 but also brought about massive unintended public health benefits. These findings can help better inform policymakers around the world about the benefits and costs of city and community lockdowns policies in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.