The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Author:

Chinazzi Matteo1ORCID,Davis Jessica T.1,Ajelli Marco2,Gioannini Corrado3,Litvinova Maria3ORCID,Merler Stefano2,Pastore y Piontti Ana1,Mu Kunpeng1,Rossi Luca3,Sun Kaiyuan4ORCID,Viboud Cécile4ORCID,Xiong Xinyue1,Yu Hongjie5ORCID,Halloran M. Elizabeth67ORCID,Longini Ira M.8ORCID,Vespignani Alessandro13ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.

2. Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.

3. ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.

4. Fogarty International Center, NIH, Bethesda, MD, USA.

5. School of Public Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China.

6. Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.

7. Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.

8. Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.

Abstract

Outbreak to pandemic In response to global dispersion of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), quarantine measures have been implemented around the world. To understand how travel and quarantine influence the dynamics of the spread of this novel human virus, Chinazzi et al. applied a global metapopulation disease transmission model to epidemiological data from China. They concluded that the travel quarantine introduced in Wuhan on 23 January 2020 only delayed epidemic progression by 3 to 5 days within China, but international travel restrictions did help to slow spread elsewhere in the world until mid-February. Their results suggest that early detection, hand washing, self-isolation, and household quarantine will likely be more effective than travel restrictions at mitigating this pandemic. Science , this issue p. 395

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference108 articles.

1. World Health Organization (WHO) “Novel Coronavirus – China” (WHO 2020); www.who.int/csr/don/12-january-2020-novel-coronavirus-china/en/.

2. The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases (2020); www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6.

3. WHO “Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Situation Report – 43” (WHO 2020); www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200303-sitrep-43-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=2c21c09c_2.

4. Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases

5. Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: The GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

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